2019 Offseason Analysis – NFC South

The first waves of free agency have come and gone and now it’s time to look at what teams have gained and lost since March 13th and where they stand as they prepare for the upcoming draft. Let’s continue with the NFC South.

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FalconsAtlanta Falcons

Key acquisitions: G James Carpenter, G Jamon Brown, DE Adrian Clayborn, DT Tyeler Davison, RB Kenjon Barner, TE Luke Stocker, OT John Wetzel

Re-signed: DT Grady Jarrett (franchised), OT Ty Sambrailo, QB Matt Schaub, WR Justin Hardy, LB Kemal Ishmael, TE Logan Paulsen, CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson

Departures: RB Tevin Coleman (49ers), CB Robert Alford (Cardinals), DE Brooks Reed (Cardinals), DE Bruce Irvin (Panthers), CB Brian Poole (Jets), G Ben Garland (49ers), OT Ryan Schraeder

Remaining free agents: G Andy Levitre, DE Derrick Shelby, G Zane Beadles

Analysis: For one of the most talented rosters, the Atlanta Falcons have not been able to find success since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016. They’ve got an elite offense with a star quarterback, one of, if not the best, receiver in the league, a great running back and a solid offensive line. The defense is fast and young full of play makers and high draft investment, but for some reason the Falcons just aren’t seeing the success their roster should possess. That being said, trying to find the source of their issues, the Falcons made several moves in free agency, and parted ways with some starters along the way.

After parting ways with veteran guards Ben Garland and Andy Levitre, the Falcons signed former Jets and Seahawks guard James Carpenter and former Rams and Giants guard Jamon Brown, both to multi-year deals. Both are slated to be the starting guards, however incumbent starters Wes Schweitzer and Brandon Fusco will compete for those spots, with the latter signing a three-year contract last offseason. The Falcons also re-signed Ty Sambrailo, who took over as the starting right tackle at the end of the season over longtime starter Ryan Schraeder, who was released this offseason. Some other notable signings were running back Kenjon Barner, will will be the No. 3 back behind Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith and can also handle return duties, and tight end Luke Stocker who is a solid blocking tight end.

On the defensive side of the ball, star defensive tackle Grady Jarrett was given the franchise tag after failing to get a long-term deal. For now, he’s under contract for 2019, but a long-term deal is still the hope for the two parties. The Falcons have parted ways with longtime starting cornerback Robert Alford and slot corner Brian Poole. That leaves a big hole at corner behind Desmond Trufant and last year’s second rounder Isaiah Oliver, who’s projected to be the starter. I could see the Falcons drafting a corner in the first round, and picking at No. 14, they should get the best guy available, like Greedy Williams, Byron Murphy, Deandre Baker, or Rock Ya-Sin. After parting ways with pass rushers Brooks Reed and Bruce Irvin, the Falcons brought back Adrian Clayborn after a year in New England. He’ll start alongside Vic Beasley and Takk McKinley, with the former being in the final year of his contract.

Conclusion: The Falcons have been struggling ever since their Super Bowl run in 2016 and had a disappointing 2018 season. They are a weird team in that one week they will look unstoppable, but then the next they’ll get their teeth kicked in, it’s a weird situation. Matt Ryan continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Julio Jones is a top receiver with solid depth behind him in Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu to form one of the best threesomes in the league. Devonta Freeman is coming back off injury and should resume as an elite starter, and second-year back Ito Smith will assume Tevin Coleman’s role. Austin Hooper has the intangibles to be a top tight end in this league, both as a receiver and a blocker.

The defense is solid too, anchored by Grady Jarrett in the defensive interior with Vic Beasley and Takk McKinley coming off the edge. Beasley has been disappointing since leading the league in sacks in 2016, and McKinley hasn’t lived up to his first-round billing. The linebackers are some of the best, led by Pro Bowler Deion Jones along with De’Vondre Campbell, Duke Riley, and Foye Oluokun. The secondary got stripped a bit but still possesses star power. Both starting safeties, Pro Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal and free safety Ricardo Allen, missed the majority of the season to a torn ACL and a torn Achilles, respectively. With both those guys out, Damontae Kazee stepped up big time and eventually led the league with seven interceptions. Both starters should be back, but a playmaker like Kazee cannot be overlooked.

The Falcons have one of the most talented rosters in the entire league, but haven’t been able to pull it all together. An elite offense, and a young and fast defense should make the team dominant, but for some reason they haven’t found much success. Hopefully they figure it out soon, because this roster is way too talented to be this bad.

PanthersCarolina Panthers

Key acquisitions: C Matt Paradis, DE Bruce Irvin, WR Chris Hogan, WR Rashad Ross

Re-signed: SS Eric Reid, OT Daryl Williams, DT Kyle Love

Departures: C Ryan Kalil (retirement), DE Julius Peppers (retirement), LB Thomas Davis (Chargers), WR Devin Funchess (Colts), T Matt Kalil (Texans), CB Captain Munnerlyn

Analysis: The Carolina Panthers didn’t make many moves this offseason, however their team looks pretty different following the departure of several franchise players. Longtime center Ryan Kalil announced his retirement after 12 years with the team, and the Panthers signed his replacement in former Bronco Matt Paradis. The Panthers also parted ways with Kalil’s brother Matt, who signed a massive five-year contract to be their left tackle and underperformed and missed all of 2018 due to injury. Right tackle Daryl Williams re-signed for one year after missing most of the season and will look to bounce back and hopefully cash in next year. After a prolific career as the second overall pick back in 2002, Julius Peppers retired as well. The future hall of famer was still productive at 38 years old in 2018, and leaves a massive void on the defensive edge. They helped address the position with the signing of 31-year-old Bruce Irvin, however there is not much depth beyond him and Mario Addison, who is also 31, and pass rusher should be high priority in the draft. Another longtime starter, linebacker Thomas Davis, did not retire as was his plan prior to 2018, but instead signed a two-year contract with the Chargers. His loss leaves another hole in the Panthers defense alongside All-Pro Luke Kuechly and former first-rounder Shaq Thompson. One hole that will not need to be filled on the defense is at safety after the club re-signed former 49er Eric Reid, who signed on a one-year prove-it deal at the start of the season after an injury to Da’Norris Searcy. Reid is now back on a three-year deal and will anchor a young secondary.

Conclusion: This team is littered with talent at multiple positions but there are areas where there are some holes or need an upgrade. A strong draft should help fill these holes, but what they view as a priority is still to be seen. The obvious hole is on defense in the front seven. They need another linebacker to pair with Kuechly and Thompson, and they also need a young pass rusher. They are set on the interior, led by Kawaan Short, Dontari Poe, Vernon Butler, and Kyle Love. The cornerbacks are young and good. James Bradberry is a future Pro Bowler and second-year speedster Donte Jackson has playmaking ability with a team-leading four interceptions. Eric Reid returns as the starting strong safety, however veteran free safety Mike Adams was let go and the starter at the moment is last year’s third rounder Rashaan Gaulden who primarily played special teams as a rookie.

The state of the offense for 2019 relies on the health of quarterback Cam Newton. The receivers are young and fast, with last year’s first rounder D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and former AAF star Rashad Ross. Devin Funchess is no longer with the club after a breakout 2017 and a mediocre 2018, and is now catching passes from Andrew Luck in Indy. To help fill the void, the Panthers signed former Patriot Chris Hogan, and the club also has Torrey Smith coming back off injury. Christian McCaffrey might be the most dangerous offensive weapon in the league, being an elite receiver out of the backfield, his elusiveness in the open field, and he’s improving as an in between the tackles runner. This guy can do everything on a football field, he even threw for a 50-yard touchdown last year. Tight end is a question mark, as Greg Olsen is old and has had his fair share of injuries. Keep an eye on last year’s fourth rounder Ian Thomas, who could be their future tight end. The offensive line needs work and I would be surprised if they addressed it in the first round of the draft, if they don’t go pass rusher. They’ve got a decent line at the moment, but it could use an upgrade, at left tackle or at left guard.

The Panthers roster will look very different to fans in 2019, with several longtime starters no longer with the team. There is some work to be done, but this team is playoff ready once again. This all depends on the health of Cam Newton after undergoing shoulder surgery. The offense is good, the defense is good. Both require some pieces to fill some voids, but a good draft can solve all their problems and attempt to go back to the promised land.

SaintsNew Orleans Saints

Key acquisitions: DT Malcom Brown, RB Latavius Murray, TE Jared Cook, C/G Nick Easton, DE Mario Edwards Jr., CB/RS Marcus Sherels

Re-signed: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB P.J. Williams, LB Craig Robertson, FS Chris Banjo

Departures: RB Mark Ingram (Ravens), C Max Unger (retirement), DE Alex Okafor (Chiefs), DT Tyeler Davison (Falcons), WR Tommylee Lewis (Lions)

Analysis: The New Orleans Saints were a little more active in free agency than usual this offseason, and they improved their roster with some solid moves, but nothing too flashy, which isn’t necessary for such a talented team. They made some decent sized moves on the offensive side of the ball, highlighted by the departure of Mark Ingram to the Ravens and the signing of former Raider and Viking Latavius Murray. Alvin Kamara is an elite talent who is now the clear cut featured back in New Orleans and Murray takes over as a power and short yardage back. The Saints also signed tight end Jared Cook, which is a great signing as New Orleans has been trying to find a tight end since trading Jimmy Graham. The other big move was the surprise retirement of center Max Unger, which prompted the signing of former Viking Nick Easton to a four-year contract. The Saints offensive line is one of the best in the league, however losing Unger is a big hole as he was a Pro Bowler last season. Now Easton, who hasn’t played since 2017, is coming off multiple injuries and is a wild card at the position, something to monitor as the season starts.

Another story of the offseason was the future of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He was acquired from the Jets before the season for a third-rounder, with thoughts that he could take over as the next starter for the Saints, but Drew Brees played like an MVP last season and that could’ve changed their plans. It doesn’t seem like Brees is going anywhere anytime soon, but the Saints still re-signed Bridgewater to a one-year deal, so they clearly have something in mind for him.

On the defensive side, the Saints signed former Patriots first rounder Malcom Brown to a three-year deal who will pair with Sheldon Rankins on the interior, who is coming off a torn Achilles suffered in the playoffs, so he’s still got a long way to go for recovery. They also re-signed nickelback P.J. Williams, who has played well for them and will return as part of a young secondary.

Conclusion: The Saints don’t have many holes on the roster, and they can live without a first round pick, which was traded to move up to draft Marcus Davenport. Speaking of which, that line is one of the most improved areas of the team, led by Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan. It may need depth as the team lost Alex Okafor to the Chiefs, but they did sign Mario Edwards, a former Raiders second rounder, to help fill the hole. The linebackers are solid, led by tackling machine Demario Davis, A.J. Klein, and Alex Anzalone. The cornerbacks, highlighted by 2017 Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore, are young and explosive with Williams, former Giants first-rounder Eli Apple, Ken Crawley, and veteran Patrick Robinson. The safeties are a pair of former second rounders in Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams and are primed to be one of the league’s best.

How can we talk about the Saints without talking about the offense and it’s star talent. Drew Brees is Drew Brees, he’s one of the best to ever do it and had one of the best years of his career in 2018 at age 39. Michael Thomas is a top receiver in the league and catches everything thrown his way. He was the best receiver in the league the first half of the season, til teams figured out that if they just covered Thomas, that would slow down Drew Brees. So they had the likes of Keith Kirkwood, Austin Carr and Tommylee Lewis as the backups to Thomas for a while. Last year’s third rounder Tre’Quan Smith had a solid rookie season with five touchdowns and should help free up some coverage for Thomas in 2019. They should hope to get Ted Ginn and Cameron Meredith more involved, otherwise they could be cut loose, but either way receiver should be addressed in the draft, and also have some insurance as Thomas is a free agent after this year and will be one of, if not the highest, paid receiver in the NFL.

The Saints don’t have many roster holes, they just need to get healthy and they’ll be back in the NFC Championship game easy, barring any illegal hits from Nickell Robey-Coleman.

BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers

Key acquisitions: LB Deone Bucannon, WR Breshad Perriman, LB Shaquil Barrett, G Earl Watford, QB Blaine Gabbert, P Bradley Pinion

Re-signed: OT Donovan Smith, LB Kevin Minter, K Cairo Santos

Departures: LB Kwon Alexander (49ers), WR DeSean Jackson (Eagles), WR Adam Humphries (Titans), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, LB Adarius Taylor (Browns), S Andrew Adams (Lions), DT Mitch Unrein

Analysis: New head coach Bruce Arians has his hands full with this team. After watching several starters from a year ago walk in free agency, the Buccaneers made some unflashy moves in hopes of living up to the hype the team had just a few years ago. Linebacker Kwon Alexander signed a massive deal in San Fran leaving a hole in the middle of the defense, which is now led by former Cardinal Deone Bucannon. Bucannon is an interesting player as he was drafted in the first round as a safety and was later converted to linebacker, much like Mark Barron, now with the Steelers. They also signed former Bronco Shaq Barrett, who will compete for a starting job alongside Lavonte David in a crowded linebacker room. Adam Humphries blossomed over the past few seasons into one of Jameis Winston’s favorite targets, and is now catching passes from Winston’s draftmate, Marcus Mariota, in Tennessee. DeSean Jackson was never able to develop a rapport with Winston in his two years in Tampa, and was then traded back to the Eagles. Looking for more receiving weapons, the Bucs signed former Ravens first-round bust Breshad Perriman, who had an ok season in Cleveland last season, but has failed to break 500 yards since entering the league as the 26th overall pick in 2015. The big signing of the offseason was the three-year extension given to left tackle Donovan Smith. Smith, a 2015 second-rounder, is a solid tackle, but for the money he got, PFF grades him at just average.

Conclusion: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got the country excited for them in 2017 on Hard Knocks, but they were never able to put it together. Winston’s been inconsistent and hasn’t played like a first overall pick, and the offense, outside of Mike Evans, hasn’t lived up to billing. I am excited to see more of Chris Godwin, who will be a great No. 2 to Evans, and hopefully a full season of tight end O.J. Howard, as he has the ability to be the next great tight end, and forms a nice pair with Cameron Brate. The running back position is very unclear, and has been since parting ways with Doug Martin after 2017. They drafted Ronald Jones in the second round last year, and wasn’t able to get on the field at all, so this is a massive year for him. Peyton Barber is the starter right now, and granted had a solid 2018 season with almost 900 yards and five touchdowns. The offensive line is sneaky good, as they had the same offensive alignment for all but one game in 2018. What made the Buccaneers actually exciting at the beginning of the 2018 season was none other than Ryan Fitzpatrick. With three straight games of over 400 passing yards to begin the season, the Bucs were one of the best offensive teams, but the team knew that they had to give the reins back to Winston after returning from suspension because he is the apparent franchise quarterback, and the front office doesn’t want to give up on him. Fitzpatrick is now a Dolphin and will be slinging it down in Miami.

The defense has been ridiculed for years now, and rightfully so. The Bucs have invested in a lot of draft capital in the defense, and their hasn’t been much to show for it. Starting up front, veteran Gerald McCoy is still playing at a high level, but his future with the team is still up in the air as his name has been thrown around in trade talks. They drafted Vita Vea in the first round last year, who came on late in the season and looked really good. The pass rush is not great and should be a priority in the draft. They’ve still got Jason Pierre-Paul, along with Carl Nassib and Noah Spence, but none of those guys are elite off the edge, as some of these top prospects are. The linebackers, with the new signings are solid, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they drafted one early as many analysts have them doing. The biggest problem is the secondary. They’ve invested many draft picks in recent years to the secondary, but haven’t had much luck so far. 2016 first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves has barely played the last two seasons due to injury, and his starting mate Brent Grimes is a 35-year-old free agent. They also drafted M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis both in the second round last year and are hoping they can take the next step in 2019 as starters. The starting safety positions are wide open, with the current starters being 2017 second-rounder Justin Evans, and 2018 fourth-rounder Jordan Whitehead. So they’ve at least attempted to address the secondary with high draft picks in recent years, they just haven’t pulled it together.

The Buccaneers had such high expectations for them a few years ago, but they just haven’t done anything to make themselves relevant. They made some moves, but they also lost several starters along the way. Bruce Arians has a lot to do with this team this year, and it continues with the draft. Their focus should be defense, defense, and more defense. They need help at all levels, and whoever comes to them at No. 5 should be a great player, whether it be Josh Allen, Devin White, Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, or whoever, they cannot screw up a defensive draft pick in the top 5. Good luck to the Bucs and Bruce Arians this offseason, you’re going to need it.

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