2019 Offseason Analysis – AFC South

The first waves of free agency have come and gone and now it’s time to look at what teams have gained and lost since March 13th and where they stand as they prepare for the upcoming draft. Let’s continue with the AFC South.

Houston Texans

Key acquisitions: T Matt Kalil, CB Bradley Roby, FS Tashaun Gipson, CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun, QB A.J. McCarron

Re-signed: Jadeveon Clowney (franchised)

Departures: S Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs), CB Kareem Jackson (Broncos), DT Christian Covington (Cowboys), RB Alfred Blue (Jaguars), FS Andre Hal (retirement)

Analysis: The Houston Texans are on the rise and are a legitimate playoff team, when healthy. They’ve got a young, electric quarterback, a top 5 receiver, and a dangerous defense. However, there were several holes on this roster despite the star talent, particularly on the offensive line and in the secondary. No quarterback was sacked more in 2018 than Deshaun Watson. On an offensive line that saw seven different starting alignments, only one position had the same starter for all 16 games, Nick Martin at center, everywhere else had multiple starters of inexperienced young players and former late-round and undrafted players. Basically every position on the line needs a major upgrade. They went out and signed former Vikings first rounder Matt Kalil, who was let go by Carolina two years into a five-year contract. It’s a nice attempt to repair this line, but there’s still plenty of work, and offensive line should be very high on the Texans draft list of priorities.

When you think of the Houston Texans, you often think of their defense, which is very strong up front with three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, and former first overall pick and recently franchised Jadeveon Clowney. However, a strong front can’t always cover for what has been a mediocre secondary. This offseason, that group has been revamped and remodeled. After watching former Cardinal Tyrann Mathieu sign for big money in Kansas City, and nine-year vet and former first-rounder Kareem Jackson move on to Denver, along with the retirement of Andre Hal, the Texans signed some new starters. After sitting behind Pro Bowlers Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. for most of his career in Denver, the former first-rounder Bradley Roby had an opportunity to prove his worth in 2018 and underperformed. He now signs with Houston on a one-year prove-it deal in hopes of cashing in next year. For now, he’s slated to be the starting nickel corner behind 35-year-old Jonathan Joseph and Aaron Colvin. The Texans also signed former Browns and Jaguars free safety Tashaun Gipson on a three year deal after he was let go as a cap casualty in Jacksonville. He’ll start alongside second-year man Justin Reid.

Conclusion: After struggling with poor, inconsistent quarterback play for many years, the Texans finally have an established young franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson. However, the club has not done everything it can to help him out in terms of offensive help and weapons. The offensive line is one of the worst, if not the worst, so this should be the top priority in the draft, possibly with Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams, Jawaan Taylor, or Cody Ford, as they need help all over the line. Running back can also be viewed as a positional need, as Lamar Miller is in the final year of his four-year contract and has been sub par, and third-year back D’Onta Foreman is still coming off an Achilles tear suffered his rookie year. Wide receiver could use depth beyond All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins. Will Fuller cannot stay healthy despite producing when healthy, however I really like the potential of Keke Coutee, who struggled to stay on the field his rookie season, but had an 11-catch game in his professional debut. The tight ends are solid, highlighted by last year’s sixth-rounder Jordan Thomas, who caught four touchdowns, along with fellow draftee Jordan Akins and veteran Ryan Griffin.

The defense is still very good up front, led by Watt and Clowney, but let’s not forget about Whitney Mercilus on the edge with D.J. Reader in the middle at nose tackle. Inside linebacker Bernardrick McKinney is one of the best in the league and gets lost in the shuffle with the other star players, not to mention Zach Cunningham alongside him. As I mentioned the secondary did some reshaping with hopes it can turn around with some new faces leading the way.

The Texans are so close to putting it all together. With most teams that struggle to get over the hump, it’s not always apparent what their issues are. With the Texans, their glaring needs are on the offensive line and secondary, and they’ve made some moves to improve in those areas. They’ve got the quarterback, the star receiver, and the elite defensive players. Now it’s all up to the draft to complete the puzzle, and the Texans will soon be ready to be a playoff team.

Indianapolis Colts

Key acquisitions: DE Justin Houston, WR Devin Funchess

Re-signed: CB Pierre Desir, SS Clayton Geathers, DE Margus Hunt, G Mark Glowinski

Departures: WR Ryan Grant (Raiders), G Matt Slauson (retirement)

Remaining free agents: WR Dontrelle Inman, FS Mike Mitchell

Analysis: Entering free agency, the Colts had the most cap space of any team, and many anticipated they would be very aggressive and sign several star players. They were linked to Le’Veon Bell, Landon Collins, among others. However, the Colts went with a different approach, working to retain their own guys and keep a similar locker room as they had last year. Head coach Frank Reich worked to establish a culture for a team that started out 1-5 and finished 10-6. With that in mind, the Colts re-signed several starters in order to keep that core leadership. Starting in the secondary, Pierre Desir re-signed on a three-year contract after a breakout 2018 season after bouncing around the league. Starting strong safety Clayton Geathers returns after a strong 2018 season after three up and down injury-filled years as a former fourth-round pick. Defensive lineman Margus Hunt signed a two-year contract extension after a career-high five sacks on a defensive line that struggled at times last year, but also flashed potential. One of the biggest storylines of the Colts turnaround was the drastically improved play of the offensive line. Ranked one of the worst in 2017, the line kept Andrew Luck clean in 2018, and a big part of that line will be returning. Right guard Mark Glowinski re-signs on a three year deal and will continue to protect Luck for years to come.

Now let’s get to the new guys. In the first wave of free agency, looking for a compliment to T.Y. Hilton, the Colts signed former Panthers second-rounder Devin Funchess to a one-year deal. The 6′-4″ Funchess fills the role as the big jump ball receiver and is slated as the No. 2 and is the perfect compliment to Hilton’s downfield speed. I see this situation similar to Alshon Jeffery in 2016 when he signed with the Eagles on a one-year prove-it deal, and later signed a four-year extension. Now Reich has his own Jeffery in the form of Funchess. It wasn’t until a week later when the Colts signed another free agent, and this one wasn’t fully expected to be there. Former Chiefs All-Pro and four-time Pro Bowler Justin Houston signed with the Colts on a two-year contract after being let go prior to free agency. This is a great signing as the Colts had a glaring need at pass rusher alongside Jabaal Sheard and Margus Hunt. I thought they would sign Ziggy Ansah, which is still a possibility as he is still a free agent due to concerns over his shoulder. Either way, I am a huge fan of this signing and is a great fit in a 4-3 defense after spending his whole career in a 3-4 in Kansas City.

Conclusion: The Indianapolis Colts were the most improved team in 2018, and are primed to build off of that success into 2019. Andrew Luck is finally healthy and had an MVP-type season that led to him winning the Comeback Player of the Year. T.Y. Hilton continued to show that he is one of the best receivers in the league with another 1,000-yard season, the fifth in his seven seasons. The running game was interesting, starting out as a committee led by second-year man Marlon Mack and rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. Mack later took over as the lead back after missing four of the first five games and finished with over 900 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Many mock drafts have the Colts taking a running back early, however I believe Mack has the ability to be a top back in this league, despite the injury concerns, and Hines flashed as a passing back. Eric Ebron also had a career-reviving year after four disappointing seasons in Detroit, having not lived up to his first-round status, with career-highs in all receiving stats, highlighted by his 13 touchdowns. None of this offensive success is possible without the revitalization of the offensive line. Drafted sixth overall, rookie Quenton Nelson was as advertised and finished with first-team All-Pro honors. The starting lineup, from left to right, of Anthony Castonzo, Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Glowinski, and rookie Braden Smith, consists of mostly homegrown talent and high draft investment and should continue to keep Luck clean for years to come.

The defense is something that didn’t get talked about when it came to the Colts, but that wasn’t until the arrival of second-round pick and Defensive Rookie of the Year, linebacker Darius Leonard. Leonard turned that entire defense around, with elite playmaking ability with stats that speak for themselves. A league-leading 163 tackles, seven sacks, four forced fumbles, eight passes defensed, and two interceptions. This guy is all over the field and immediately established himself as a superstar. The defensive line is improved with the Houston addition, however it still needs work on the interior alongside Denico Autry, and should be a focus in the draft. I still believe the perfect fit for them who is still surprisingly on the market is Ndamukong Suh. The secondary is young and exciting, led by the newly re-signed Desir and Geathers. Malik Hooker, their 2017 first-rounder, has the tools to be an elite free safety, and former undrafted rookie Kenny Moore broke out in 2018 with the ability to play outside and in the slot. I believe that cornerback will be a focus in the draft, potentially in the first round if they don’t go defensive tackle. Former second-rounder Quincy Wilson hasn’t panned out, and another outside corner to pair alongside Desir is a necessity as I see Moore as a slot corner/nickelback due to his size and quickness.

The Colts are officially back. They’ve got their quarterback back, some more help at receiver, a solid group of running backs, a great offensive line, and a young emerging defense. Last year’s draft was one of the best in history, which produced several starters and two All-Pros. This year, the top needs are at cornerback and defensive tackle, which there should some good ones left at 26th overall, with some focus being on more receiver depth, running back, and linebacker. Should they have another solid draft, the Colts will have a tremendous roster all-around, and with the Reich coaching staff, are ready to compete for the AFC crown.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key acquisitions: QB Nick Foles, WR Chris Conley, LB Jake Ryan, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, TE Geoff Swaim, RB Alfred Blue, RB Thomas Rawls

Re-signed: G A.J. Cann, OT Josh Wells, G Tyler Shatley

Departures: QB Blake Bortles (Rams), DT Malik Jackson (Eagles), FS Tashaun Gipson (Texans), RB Carlos Hyde (Chiefs), OT Jermey Parnell, WR Donte Moncrief (Steelers), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Patriots), RB T.J. Yeldon (Bills)

Remaining free agents: RB Corey Grant, G Patrick Omameh

Analysis: 2018 was a massively disappointing season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. What was one of the best defenses in 2017, was mediocre and the potential of a potent run-first offense was one of the worst in the league. Coming into the offseason with little cap space, several veterans needed to be released to free up cap space for one of the biggest moves of the offseason. Nick Foles is the new quarterback in Jacksonville, which was expected prior to the signing, as former Eagles QB coach John DeFilippo is the new Jaguars OC. This move also led to the release of Blake Bortles, who hopes to revitalize his career as a backup in Sean McVay’s offense. The running back position struggled as former fourth overall pick Leonard Fournette was below average and missed half the season. His backups are no longer with the team, leaving veteran acquisitions Alfred Blue and Thomas Rawls as the backups to Fournette, who is hoping for a bounce back season. The receiver position was one of the worst in the league, after losing Allen Robinson to the Bears and Marqise Lee tore his ACL. Chris Conley is brought on board after four years in Kansas City, and will compete for the No. 1 job as that depth chart is wide open. Tight end has been an issue in recent years. They signed Austin Seferian-Jenkins a year ago and was quickly let go, and they made an attempt with former Cowboy Geoff Swaim, however this should be a draft priority for the Jags. The offensive line struggled with injuries, but they were able to re-sign starting guard A.J. Cann and signed former Bengals first-round bust Cedric Ogbuehi to compete at right tackle following the release of Jermey Parnell. That is still an area of need, as left tackle Cam Robinson is coming off injury, but they are in good shape everywhere else on the line after giving big money to LG Andrew Norwell and C Brandon Linder.

The defense, which was the best in 2017, was disappointing in 2018. Changes needed to be made, after SS Barry Church was released before seasons end and FS Tashaun Gipson was released for cap reasons. DT Malik Jackson was released three years into a monster six-year contract signed in 2016. The only signing was former Packer Jake Ryan who will pair with Myles Jack at middle linebacker.

Conclusion: Despite a disappointing 2018 season, the Jaguars can make a quick turnaround and be a contender. What had hindered them in the past was the poor quarterback play of Bortles, but with Foles at the helm, they should see better success. Fournette needs to turn it around in 2018 after being criticized for lack of effort, and with a new QB and offensive coordinator, they should be able to bring out the best in the former first-rounder. The receiving weapons still need work, but I believe they will address that issue early in the draft. The defense is what put the Jaguars on the map in 2017, and they have the talent to bounce back. Led by Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue, and Marcell Dareus, the defensive front is dominant, and the play of last year’s first rounder Taven Bryan should help cope with the loss of Malik Jackson. The linebackers are elite with the speedy Telvin Smith, Myles Jack, and Jake Ryan, however depth should be addressed. The secondary was one of the best, led by cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, but took a step back. They are primed to go back to their Pro Bowl forms, however the safety position is yet to be seen. Last year’s third rounder Ronnie Harrison should take over as the starting strong safety, but the free safety spot is unclear.

The Jaguars were a huge disappointment in 2018 after an AFC Championship appearance the previous year. The quarterback play set them back, but with Foles there they should be set. If the offense can come together, and the defense can become “Sacksonville” again, the Jaguars should go back to being contenders.

Tennessee Titans

Key acquisitions: WR Adam Humphries, OLB Cameron Wake, G Rodger Saffold, QB Ryan Tannehill (acquired from Dolphins)

Re-signed: SS Kenny Vaccaro, G Kevin Pamphile

Departures: OLB Brian Orakpo (retirement), G Quinton Spain (Bills), G Josh Kline (Vikings), QB Blaine Gabbert (Buccaneers), SS Jonathan Cyprien

Remaining free agents: OLB Derrick Morgan, DT Bennie Logan, LB Will Compton

Analysis: The Titans continue to be active in free agency as they look to make a playoff push. I’ve been a fan of how the Titans have been building the roster, and have been making a lot of good moves, both in free agency and the draft. This year, they continued to addressed their positions of need, acquiring some big names. In 2017, the Titans drafted receiver Corey Davis fifth overall, however they weren’t getting much production beyond him in 2018 with Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharpe, so they signed the top slot receiver on the market in former Buccaneer Adam Humphries. Humphries was Jameis Winston’s security blanket in Tampa, and now he goes from catching passes from the 2015 first overall pick to the 2015 second overall pick. After losing veteran pass rushers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan, the Titans signed 37-year-old Cameron Wake to a three-year deal. Still playing at a high level, the ageless former longtime Dolphin leads a pass rush with last year’s second rounder Harold Landry, and really no one else on the edge. Tennessee still has four-time Pro Bowler Jurrell Casey rushing from the interior, but the defensive line still needs work and should be a focus in the draft, likely in the first round.

The Titans offensive line has been one of the league’s best, led by Pro Bowl left tackle Taylor Lewan, right tackle Jack Conklin, and center Ben Jones. The starting guards from a year ago (Quinton Spain and Josh Kline) are no longer with the team, leaving a large vacancy at the position. Former Ram Rodger Saffold joins the Titans on a four-year contract and will anchor the left guard spot. The right guard spot is wide open, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was addressed highly in the draft.

How can we possibly forget one of the biggest trades of the offseason. The Dolphins traded their starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill to the Titans for a fourth-round pick and a swap of late-rounders. This is a great move as Mariota has struggled with injuries and has failed to play a full 16-game season in his first four seasons. Now if Mariota were to suffer an injury, which is likely, the Titans have a valuable backup and is an upgrade over their past backups in Matt Cassel and Blaine Gabbert. I’m not sure what the future looks like for Tannehill, his contract was restructured so he’s only under contract for 2019, but if he gets an opportunity, he could become a starter on a new team in 2020.

Conclusion: The Tennessee Titans continue to build their roster and are preparing for something big. I’m a big fan of head coach Mike Vrabel, and Titans fans should be too. They’ve got a great coaching staff, and are only a piece or two away from contention. The offense is improving with a stout running game which should feature more of Derrick Henry just pounding away opposing defenses with all 250 pounds of him. The receivers are young, but the potential of Corey Davis showed last season and should blossom in year three. Tight end should be an area of focus in the draft as 34-year-old Delanie Walker is coming off a serious lower leg injury. Third-year man Jonnu Smith flashed at times last year, but he was injured as well and definitely needs an upgrade.

The defense is solid, but needs help up front. Cameron Wake can only do so much, and the development of Harold Landry is key, but help is still needed. Another big body alongside Jurrell Casey is also a need as team’s ran straight through that line in 2018, so a big nose tackle is necessary, maybe Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence is the pick at No. 19, or maybe Jerry Tillery or Jeffrey Simmons. The linebackers are solid with last year’s first rounder Rashaan Evans and breakout star last year Jayon Brown leading the way. The secondary was once a weak spot, but is now the best group on the team. The cornerbacks are led by former Patriots in Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan and up-and-coming star Adoree Jackson. Pro Bowl free safety Kevin Byard is a playmaking ball hawk and former Saint Kenny Vaccaro was re-signed to a multi-year deal after a one-year prove-it deal.

The Titans have been building a roster brick by brick and are soon ready for contention. They’ve been competitive the past few seasons and have been building off each season and improving in areas where they’ve been struggling. Will this be the year the Titans pull it all together? We shall see.

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