2020 Pro Bowl Roster Analysis – AFC

Last week, the NFL revealed the initial Pro Bowl rosters going to Orlando the week before the Super Bowl. There is always criticism about snubs and who should and should not have made the roster, so I’m going to give my opinion on the AFC selections. Bolded names I agree with, italicized I have a different opinion.

Offense

No issues here for the quarterback selections. All three have had great seasons, even MVP seasons. One player who was not selected is the guy who lost to all three of these quarterbacks in Tom Brady. He’s not having a good year, especially compared to these three, and it’s unlikely he’ll earn a spot as an alternate in the event any of the three drop out. There’s a good chance one of them will be headed to the Super Bowl, so my predictions for alternates include Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, and Josh Allen.

At running back, the top two guys in Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry I agree with, as the former leads the league in rushing and the latter is third in rushing and leads the AFC in rushing touchdowns. The final spot should not go to Mark Ingram. Ingram is having a good season, great even, but Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs is fifth in the AFC with 1,150 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, while Ingram is seventh in rushing with 1,018 yards, but he has 10 touchdowns, which obviously gave him the edge over the rookie. Ingram will likely opt out of the game, as he may have plans for the following week, so Jacobs could sneak on as his replacement. Leonard Fournette would be the next guy after Jacobs, as he is fourth in the AFC in rushing, but only has three rushing touchdowns. I would also consider Austin Ekeler for a spot as well.

The AFC receivers are far inferior to the NFC, but nonetheless are only half correct. Hopkins and Allen are some of the best receivers in the game, so so issues there. Jarvis Landry is having a great season, but Julian Edelman is more deserving has he is better than Landry in every receiving category. Tyreek Hill is also having a great season, despite missing games due to injury, but guys like DeVante Parker, John Brown, and Courtland Sutton are having career years, and are ahead of Hill in several categories. The Pro Bowl is a bit of a popularity contest, and those three guys aren’t household names like Landry and Hill are.

I agree with the tight ends on this list. Kelce has been a top tight end for years, leading the AFC in receiving yards, and Andrews enjoyed a great breakout season with 10 touchdowns. At least one of these two will likely drop out, so I’ll give the alternate spots to Darren Waller, who’s sixth in the AFC in receptions and ninth in yards, and the other spot to Hunter Henry, if it comes to that.

This year features three first-time offensive tackles in Stanley, Tunsil, and Brown. Guys like Taylor Lewan and Alejandro Villanueva are having down years, so the young guys are getting their opportunities. Brown is having a fine year in his first year in Oakland, but Mitchell Schwartz may be the best right tackle in football and isn’t getting recognition. He’s one of the highest graded tackles according to PFF, and is an ironman at the position, despite missing his first snaps of his career earlier this year. I also would have considered Anthony Castonzo, the blindside protector of one of the best lines in football in Indianapolis.

The same can’t be said for the guards, as the top three are the same as last year. The center position is interesting, as Maurkice Pouncey was named to his fourth straight and eighth overall, but is having a bad year according to PFF, who has him ranked as the 36th center…there are only 32 teams. The top centers in the AFC according to PFF are Ben Jones of the Titans and Brandon Linder of the Jaguars. If he didn’t get hurt, I believe the spot would’ve gone to Matt Skura of the Ravens.

Defense

Frank Clark is having a good year, but there are guys more deserving than the first-year Chief and former Seahawk. If Myles Garrett didn’t bonk Mason Rudolph on the head he would be the clear favorite, but the play of Justin Houston this year in his first season in Indy cannot be ignored. Houston has more three more sacks and eight more tackles than Clark. Where Clark would get the leg up, he has two more forced fumbles, and has four pass breakups and an interception, where Houston has none of each. I’d also consider two Jaguars in Yannick Ngakoue (8.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) and rookie Josh Allen (10.0 sacks), They nailed the defensive tackle position, with the alternate spots likely deserving to Jurrell Casey and Jordan Phillips, who’s having a breakout year with 9.5 sacks.

At linebacker, the outside guys are usually the pass rushers in a 3-4 defense, and T.J. Watt has been one of the best defensive players in football, and a DPOY favorite. Von Miller likely gets this spot because of popularity, posting just 7.0 sacks and no forced fumbles, but the spot really should belong to Watt’s pass rushing partner, Bud Dupree, who has 8.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. On the inside, despite missing three games, last year’s DROY Darius Leonard earns his spot, while Dont’a Hightower hasn’t really done much. He’s having a great year on one of the best defenses in the league, but I’d give the spot to Joe Schobert, who’s second in the AFC with 125 tackles, and has 13 pass breakups, four interceptions, and two forced fumbles, while Hightower has just 65 tackles, four pass breakups, and no interceptions or forced fumbles. I’d also consider Zach Cunningham, who leads the AFC in tackles.

The cornerback position is interesting, a Gilmore and White are the two best corners in the league. Peters has thrived since being traded to Baltimore, and Humphrey has been lockdown all year. There are also guys having great seasons to who should get recognition, notably Joe Haden, Logan Ryan, J.C. Jackson, and A.J. Bouye. If any of them drop out, likely 2-3 of them, they should get the spots.

The safeties I mostly agree with, but Earl Thomas is not having a superstar year. He likely got the nod based on reputation, but there are well-known names that deserve the spot over Thomas. The top guys in my opinion are Tyrann Mathieu, Justin Simmons, and Devin McCourty. All three are playing at elite levels, and are all unique. Mathieu is in his first season in KC, Simmons is having a breakout year, and McCourty has been doing it all decade.

Special Teams

No arguments here. Kern and Tucker are the highest-graded at their positions according to PFF. The rookie Hardman has been electric as a returner, and the now 8-timer Slater may be the best special teamer in NFL history.