2020 Offseason Analysis – NFC North

The first waves of free agency have come and gone and now it’s time to look at what teams have gained and lost since March 18th and where they stand as they prepare for the upcoming draft. Let’s continue with the NFC North.

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Bears Chicago Bears

Key acquisitions: QB Nick Foles, DE Robert Quinn, OT Germain Ifedi, TE Jimmy Graham, CB Artie Burns, LB Barkevious Mingo, TE Demetrius Harris, S Jordan Lucas

Re-signed: LB Danny Trevathan, S Deon Bush, CB DeAndre Houston-Carson, DE Brent Urban, CB Sherrick McManis, LS Patrick Scales

Departures: G Kyle Long (retired), OLB Leonard Floyd (Rams), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (Raiders), S Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (Cowboys), CB Prince Amukamara, TE Trey Burton, WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Redskins), DT Nick Williams (Lions), QB Chase Daniel (Lions), OT Cornelius Lucas (Redskins)

Remaining free agents: DE Aaron Lynch, C Ted Larsen

Analysis: The Bears had a very busy offseason with everything you can think of in terms of roster movement: signings, re-signings, releases, cuts, traded acquisitions, traded departures, retirements, you name it. Let’s start with the new guys. Nick Foles has been acquired from the Jaguars in a Ryan Tannehill-Titans similar situation – a veteran quarterback on a big contract gets shipped to a new team, eating a good chunk of the contract while the new team gets they guy on a restructured contract. Trubisky has not been good, and this trade could work in two scenarios, it lights a fire under Trubisky and he plays like where he was drafted, or Foles plays great and is the new franchise QB, like Tannehill and the Titans. Whoever is under center, they’ll have a new right guard blocking as longtime starter Kyle Long retired. They smartly brought in Germain Ifedi, a former first-rounder of the Seahawks who’s primarily started at right tackle, but seems more natural at guard. They also got a new red zone weapon in Jimmy Graham. He’s been such a disappointment, especially for fantasy owners, the past couple seasons, which led to his release in Green Bay. The Bears have a couple options at tight end with Adam Shaheen and Ben Braunecker after the release of Trey Burton, but Graham will get the best chance based on his contract.

Even though the offense is the weaker unit on the team, most of the changes came on defense. They re-signed Danny Trevathan, who was hurt most of the season, and his replacement, Nick Kwiatkoski, leaves for a starting job for the Raiders. They also brought in Robert Quinn after a career-resurgent season in Dallas and gave him a big five-year deal. He replaces their former first-rounder Leonard Floyd, who was cut shortly after the start of free agency. Other notable losses include safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, who started all 16 games his lone season in Chicago, starting CB Prince Amukamara, speedy wideout Taylor Gabriel who came over from the Falcons in 2018, Kevin Pierre-Louis who is a great special teamer, and Nick Williams, who had a breakout 2019 season and is now in Detroit. They’re replacing those guys with a pair of former first-round busts in Barkevious Mingo, who’ll likely get defensive snaps, and Artie Burns, who was relegated to special teams after flopping at cornerback. They don’t have a clear second outside corner opposite Kyle Fuller, so Burns may have a chance to take that spot.

Conclusion: The Bears stunk in 2019 after a great 2018, and their historic defense was anything but. They’ve made a bunch of changes on defense, maybe for the better, maybe not. The offense is what really needed a change, and it may have gotten it in Foles, but we don’t even know if he’ll be the Week 1 starter.

Enough about Nagy, as I mentioned this is a talented roster. They’ve got good running backs in David Montgomery, who needs to be given the ball more (I’m never going to get off the wagon), and Tarik Cohen, who’s a great utility player and human joystick. The receivers are alright. Allen Robinson is a great No. 1, and Anthony Miller has potential to be a solid No. 2. They cut Taylor Gabriel, and Riley Ridley and Javon Wims are too inexperienced. The offensive line is pretty good with most of the line coming back with the addition of Ifedi likely replacing Long.

The defense is still great. Khalil Mack and Quinn are phenomenal edge rushers with monsters in the middle in Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman. The linebackers are great with Roquan Smith and Trevathan, although they have some young unknown guys behind them who are wildcards. The secondary is fine. Fuller and Eddie Jackson are among the best at their positions, but they other spots alongside them are question marks.

They have a talented roster, but I just don’t trust this coaching staff. I don’t like Matt Nagy. He’s a terrible play caller who has no idea what a running back is. He made me look like an idiot when I said Montgomery was going to be rookie of the year. He has the talent, he was just poorly utilized, and that’s on Nagy. He gets way too much into his own head, he literally said he watched the “double doink” over and over, and even showed it in team meetings to remind players to never forget it. That’s the exact opposite of a football player’s mentality – forget about the past and focus on what’s ahead. He’s not a stable coach and is in my bottom five coach rankings. They have to do something this season, or big changes will be coming to Chicago.

Lions Detroit Lions

Key acquisitions: LB Jamie Collins, DT Danny Shelton, CB Desmond Trufant, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, LB Reggie Ragland, DT Nick Williams, S Duron Harmon, WR Geronimo Allison, CB Darryl Roberts, QB Chase Daniel, S Jayron Kearse, LB Elijah Lee, CB Tony McRae

Re-signed: S Miles Killebrew, WR Danny Amendola, G Kenny Wiggins, G Oday Aboushi, LS Don Muhlbach

Departures: CB Darius Slay (traded to Eagles), G Graham Glasgow (Broncos), DT Damon Harrison, OT Rick Wagner (Packers), LB Devon Kennard (Cardinals), DT A’Shawn Robinson (Rams), P Sam Martin (Broncos), CB Rashaan Melvin (Jaguars), TE Logan Thomas (Redskins), QB Jeff Driskel (Broncos)

Remaining free agents: DT Mike Daniels, S Tavon Wilson, WR Jermaine Kearse

Analysis: I’m still shocked by the amount of players that actually want to join the Lions. They’ve been a dumpster fire under Matt Patricia and players have come out and criticized his coaching style and ability, notably now former All-Pro corner Darius Slay. But nonetheless, the Lions brought in a ton of free agents, headlined by some former Patriots, in an attempt to be somewhat respectable.

As I mentioned, the additions were headlined by former Patriots, as Patricia is the former DC in New England. Linebacker Jamie Collins comes to Detroit after a great season returning to the Patriots. He was bad in Cleveland, and only seems to thrive in New England, but maybe it’ll be different with someone who’s very familiar with Collins. Also signed on was Danny Shelton, who had a career year last year also with the Patriots. They also pulled off a trade, acquiring the Patriots trusted third safety Duron Harmon, who’ll get a shot at a full-time starting job. Also in the secondary they signed former Jets starter Darryl Roberts, who was a draft pick of the Patriots in 2015. Other guys on defense are former Bills and Chiefs starting linebacker Reggie Ragland, former Bears d-tackle Nick Williams, and former Falcons first-round starting corner Desmond Trufant. So in total on defense, they got two new defensive tackles, two linebackers, and five DBs; that’s a lot. With the gains come significant losses, notably Slay, who’s been wanting out ever since Patricia was hired. They also lost two starting DTs in Snacks Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson, starting LB Devon Kennard, and starting CB Rashaan Melvin. So they gained more than they lost, that’s a good sign, and I’ll give them credit.

On offense, they cut starting right tackle Rick Wagner, and signed a backup in Vaitai from Philly to a massive contract to be the starter. They also gave Matt Stafford a new weapon in former Packer Geronimo Allison. They also lost starting guard Graham Glasgow, so they’ll need to find a replacement.

Conclusion: Who the heck knows what’s going on in Detroit. They keep signing free agents to big contracts, and don’t go anywhere. They lost NINE straight games to end the season, and wound up with the third pick in the draft. They are expected to trade back, but they need help at every position. They traded Slay, so obviously cornerback is in play, particularly Jeff Okudah. I could see them also taking Isaiah Simmons or Derrick Brown.

They have some building blocks. I like Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay, and T.J, Hockenson as young starters, and an ok offensive line. The defense took a hit, but hopefully the new guys and a solid draft will help. Patricia is on the hot seat, and if he can’t prove in 2020 that the Lions can succeed, he’s gone.

Packers Green Bay Packers

Key acquisitions: LB Christian Kirksey, OT Rick Wagner, WR Devin Funchess

Re-signed: K Mason Crosby, TE Marcedes Lewis, CB Will Redmond, RB Tyler Ervin

Departures: LB Blake Martinez (Giants), OT Bryan Bulaga (Chargers), LB Kyler Fackrell (Giants), LB B.J. Goodson (Browns), WR Geronimo Allison (Lions)

Remaining free agents: CB Tramon Williams

Analysis: The Packers were brought back to life in 2019 after a rough couple seasons. Before 2018 they were never an active team in free agency, now under GM Brian Gutekunst, they’ve become more active, not as active as last year when they signed Preston and Za’Darius Smith, but active nonetheless.

The Packers actually did most of their work just before the start of free agency. After being cut, Christian Kirksey joins Green Bay after six years in Cleveland. He’s only played in nine games over the past two seasons, so health is a concern, but when he’s healthy, he’s a great starter, and fills the void lost by Blake Martinez and B.J. Goodson. On offense, longtime starter Bryan Bulaga left for the Chargers, so they brought in former Lions and Ravens starter Rick Wagner to replace Bulaga as the starting right tackle. Looking for more weapons for Aaron Rodgers, they signed former Panthers and Colts receiver Devin Funchess, who missed almost all of 2019 with a broken collarbone. He’s been a fine receiver throughout his career, and give Rodgers a big red-zone threat who’s great at 50-50 jump balls with his 6′-4″ frame.

Conclusion: Green Bay did a good job replacing the guys they lost. They replaced Martinez with Kirksey, Bulaga with Wagner, and Geronimo Allison with Funchess. They also lost Kyler Fackrell, who had 10.5 sacks in 2018, but only 1.0 in 2019. He was essentially replaced last season when they signed the Smiths and drafted Rashan Gary in the first round. Cornerback Tramon Williams is still a free agent, and at age 37, played well last year and could return. Looking at their roster, the holes I see are at inside linebacker, nose tackle, and wide receiver. Yes they signed Kirksey, but right now the starter alongside him is Oren Burks. I don’t know much about Burks, he hasn’t played much, but unless their staff believes in the 2018 third-rounder, they’ll likely address it in the draft. Kenny Clark is an elite nose tackle, but they need more depth there. They also need more depth at receiver, as Davante Adams isn’t always fully healthy, and Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdez-Scantling are still young and developing. Picking at No. 30, I could see them going after a receiver, as this is such a deep class. Targets could be Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins, or Denzel Mims. They could go defensive line, maybe a Ross Blacklock or Marlon Davidson. Ultimately, I think they would go linebacker, with Zack Baun out of Wisconsin.

There are only a few holes that need to be filled on this roster, but either way the Packers will be back in the playoffs. Their knock on offense was lack of receivers when Adams went down. Well out of that situation Lazard emerged, and running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams thrived. I also expect second-year tight end Jace Sternberger to become the starter.

The defense really emerged as a top 5 unit in 2019, notably due to the additions of the Smiths to combine for 25.5 sacks. Then along with Clark, Gary, and Kirksey will form a solid front seven. What has really been in the works is the secondary, as they’ve invested in a lot of draft capital in DBs. Jaire Alexander is the next big corner, alongside Kevin King with safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage. They’ll likely add another corner in the draft, which they love to do.

The Packers are back, and in what used to be a very competitive division in the NFC North, now looks Packer-dominated.

VikingsMinnesota Vikings

Key acquisitions: DT Michael Pierce, WR Tajae Sharpe, DE Anthony Zettel

Re-signed: S Anthony Harris (franchise), P Britton Colquitt, K Dan Bailey, OT Rashod Hill, C Brett Jones, G Dakota Dozier

Departures: WR Stefon Diggs (Bills), DT Linval Joseph (Chargers), CB Xavier Rhodes (Colts), CB Trae Waynes (Bengals), CB Mackensie Alexander (Bengals), S Andrew Sendejo (Browns), DE Stephen Weatherly (Panthers), WR Laquon Treadwell (Falcons), S Jayron Kearse (Lions), TE David Morgan

Remaining free agents: DE Everson Griffen

Analysis: What a rough offseason for the Vikings. The past few seasons, they’ve been playoff contendors built around a powerhouse defense and efficient offense. Now they’ve lost several starters and franchise players in some tough cap-saving moves. The first big moves they made were the releases of Linval Joseph and Xavier Rhodes. Both multi-Pro Bowlers, Rhodes had a really rough 2019 season, while Joseph had been his usual disruptive self, despite being 31. Rhodes had issues being burned in coverage and he had lost a step after his All-Pro 2017 season. He gets a fresh start in Indianapolis, and Joseph is now a Charger. Rhodes wasn’t the only loss in the secondary, former first-round starter Trae Waynes leaves for Cincinnati, along with slot corner Mackensie Alexander. Safety Andrew Sendejo heads to Cleveland, and Jayron Kearse is now a Lion. Also on the d-line is the loss of backup Stephen Weatherly, who was a nice rotational player, he heads to Carolina. 10-year veteran Everson Griffen is still a free agent, and may or may not return. They’d be wise to bring him back, because they have nothing after Danielle Hunter right now.

One of the biggest trades of the offseason was the trade of receiver Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills for draft picks, including a first-rounder. Diggs and Adam Thielen formed one of the better receiving duos, but there was definite tension with Kirk Cousins due to lack of targets. The fact that Diggs is a grade 1 diva, he lashed out, and the Vikings were sick of it. They were paying Diggs superstar money, but he’s never even been to the Pro Bowl. Kudos to the Vikings for getting the return they got, and compared to the return the Texans got for a much, much better receiver in DeAndre Hopkins.

Enough with the losses, let’s actually talk about the additions they made. They brought in former Ravens starter Michael Pierce to take Joseph’s role on the defensive line. They also signed former Titans receiver Tajae Sharpe. He’ll likely just replace Laquon Treadwell, as Sharpe is more of a third or fourth receiver, not a full-time starter like Diggs.

More notably, the Vikings gave the franchise tag to starting safety Anthony Harris, who had a phenomenal 2019. It’s unclear the Vikings plan for Harris, whether he’ll play on the tag, work out a long-term extension, or trade him.

Conclusion: The Vikings window for a championships seems all but shut. It’s a real shame they couldn’t win a championship during their window, because they really had such a talented roster. That defense was so dominant, and they did such a good job of drafting and development, and retaining those guys on second contracts. Unfortunately those second contracts became too much, and they had to part with their star players. Despite the losses, they still have a talented defense. Up front, Danielle Hunter is a top pass rusher, Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are elite linebackers, and Harrison Smith is one of the most versatile elite defenders in the league. They’ve got a few young guys that’ll need to step up, including former first-round CB Mike Hughes, CB Holton Hill, and DE Ifeadi Odenigbo. They definitely need help in the front four and in the secondary due to the number of losses, so expect that to be a focus in the draft. If they don’t address defense, I wouldn’t be surprised if they took a receiver in the first round. They have two first-round picks at No. 22 and No. 25, so they should get any combo of DB/DL/WR. Their best bet would likely be a number of corners and safeties, DE A.J. Epenesa, WRs Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenualt, or Justin Jefferson. The offense is still intact with Cousins and Thielen, but they need to be more run-focused with Dalvin Cook.

It really stinks that the Vikings window closed and are likely on the outside of the playoff picture. Their roster-building philosophy was smart in the short-term, but consequential in the long-term. They still have a solid roster and decent coaching, but they’ve got a long road ahead to rebuild the roster.

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