AFC Playoff Scenarios entering Sunday’s Week 18 games

The NFL’s biggest season ever with the brand new Week 18 slate of games leads to a ton of different playoff seeding scenarios.

After Saturday’s game which had the Chiefs defeat the Broncos 28-24, the Chiefs are locked into either the #1 or #2 seed, with the Titans the lone threat for the top seed.

Want to know all the scenarios for seeding? Then you’re in the right place. I probably didn’t cover every possible scenario, that would take forever and probably be for nothing, so enjoy!

Kansas City Chiefs

Pretty straight forward for Chiefs fans on Sunday, become the biggest Texans fans you can be. If the Titans lose to the Texans, Chiefs are the #1 seed and have a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Titans win: 1 – Tennessee, 2 – Kansas City
Titans lose: 1 – Kansas City, 2 – Tennessee

Titans win, Chiefs would take on 7 seed (continue reading for those scenarios)

Tennessee Titans

Win and you get a bye, as simple as that Titans, beat the Texans. Superstar running back was not activated off injured reserve this week, and this bye week would be perfect to let Henry get healthy for another week and be full go in the divisional round. But you have to take care of business.

Titans win: 1 – Tennessee, 2 – Kansas City

HOWEVER, there is a universe where the Titans lose. If that happens, they could drop to the 4 seed.

Titans lose + Bengals lose + (Bills win or Patriots lose) – 2 seed
Titans lose + Bengals win + Patriots or Bills lose – 3 seed
Titans lose + Bengals win + Patriots win + Bills lose – 4 seed

SO if the Titans lose and Bengals win, you lost the 2 seed. You will be the 3 or 4 seed, dependent on the Patriots and Bills games outcomes.

Cincinnati Bengals

Congrats Bengals fans, you won the AFC North! Now it’s already been reported that Joe Burrow will be sitting for this game against the Browns, who will be without Baker Mayfield, so there’s still a legit chance of a win. You no longer qualify for the #1 seed after the Chiefs win, but you are still in play for the 2 seed, but can also drop to the 4 seed.

If the Bengals defeat the Browns, the seeding really depends on all three of the Titans, Patriots, and Bills games because the Patriots hold the tie breaker over the Bengals because of conference record.

Bengals win, Titans lose, Patriots win, Bills win – 2 seed
Bengals win, Titans lose, Patriots win, Bills lose – 3 seed
Bengals win, Titans win, Patriots win, Bills win – 3 seed
Bengals win, Titans win, Patriots win, Bills lose – 4 seed (Patriots own tie breaker)

SO BENGALS, you have to root for the Bills to win because they are the ones protecting you from the Patriots. Bills have a worse conference record so they cannot challenge you, but if the Bills lose and the Patriots win, they can overtake you.

HOWEVER if the Bengals lose to the Browns, you’re almost locked in to the 4 seed unfortunately. If the Bengals lose, and at least one of the Bills and/or Patriots win, you get the 4 seed. If they both lose their matchups, you get the 3 seed, simple as that.

Bengals lose, Bills lose and Patriots lose – 3 seed
Bengals lose, and one of Bills or Patriots win – 4 seed

Buffalo Bills

The goal is simple Buffalo: beat the Jets, and you are the AFC East champions. Your seeding is dependent on the outcome of the Titans and Bengals games.

Bills win, Titans lose, Bengals lose – 3 seed
Bills win, Titans lose, Bengals win – 3 seed
Bills win, Titans win, Bengals lose – 4 seed (Bengals have better conference record)
Bills win, Titans win, Bengals win – 4 seed

HOWEVER if the Bills lose to the Jets, they are at risk of losing the division if the Patriots win as they split the season series and the Patriots have a better conference record, so they automatically fall to the wild card if this happens, max of 5 seed.

If the Patriots lose with a Bills loss, they are locked in to the 4 seed, regardless of the outcome of the Bengals and Titans games.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have already clinched a playoff berth, but they need to beat the Dolphins, which sounds easy, but the Pats have lost 5 of their last 6 second game season matchups against the Dolphins, meaning Pats stink against Miami in December/January.

SO, if the Patriots win, they have at least the 5 seed. BUT if the Bills lose, they get can get the 3 or 4 seed, depending on if the Bengals win or lose.

Patriots win, Bills win – 5 seed
Patriots win, Bills lose, Bengals win – 4 seed
Patriots win, Bills lose, Bengals lose – 3 seed

Now here is when it gets tricky, is if the Patriots lose to the Dolphins. The best seed they could get is the 5 seed, but they’re gonna need a lot of help.

Patriots lose and Colts win, Colts would be 5 seed as they have the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Chargers win, Patriots would be 6 seed as they have the head-to-head. Raiders win they’re either 6 or 7 seed as they have the tie breaker over the Colts.

Patriots lose, Colts win, Chargers win – 5 Colts, 6 Patriots, 7 Chargers
Patriots lose, Colts win, Raiders win – 5 Raiders, 6 Colts, 7 Patriots
Patriots lose, Colts lose, Chargers win – 5 Patriots , 6 Chargers, 7 Raiders (?)
Patriots lose, Colts lose, Raiders win – 5 Raiders, 6 Patriots, 7 Colts

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were the hottest team down the stretch, but aren’t locked into the playoffs after a crucial loss to the Raiders, which affects more than you realize.

Right now, the Colts are the 6 seed and a game behind the Patriots and Bills. If the Colts beat the Jaguars, they’re in the playoff, simple as that. Their seeding can be as follows:

Colts win, Patriots win, Chargers win – 6 seed
Colts win, Patriots win, Raiders win – 7 seed (see, that game was important)
Colts win, Patriots lose, Chargers win – 5 seed
Colts win, Patriots lose, Raiders win – 6 seed
Colts win, Patriots lose, Bills lose, Chargers win – 5 seed
Colts win, Patriots lose, Bills lose, Raiders win – 6 seed

Here is where it gets absolutely insane for the Colts: if they lose, they are eliminated in all by ONE scenario.

Colts lose, they’re 9-8. One of the Raiders or Chargers will be 9-8, other is 10-7, and if the Ravens win they’ll be 9-8.

The winning scenario if you lose Colts is Patriots lose, Raiders win, and Ravens win.

The losing scenarios explained:

Colts lose, Ravens win, Raiders win – Raiders get 6 seed, but Ravens get the 7. Ravens, Chargers, and Colts are all 9-8, but Ravens get wildcard because they beat both of Colts and Chargers this season, which qualifies for the head-to-head sweep in the tie breaker rules, so both of the Colts and Chargers are eliminated.
Colts lose, Ravens win, Chargers win – Chargers are 10-7 and get a berth. Colts and Raiders are 9-8, but the RAIDERS BEAT THE COLTS, so they eliminate them
Colts lose, Steelers win – Colts eliminated because there will be a winner between Chargers/Raiders, one will be out, and the Steelers are in. BUT if that game ties, Steelers are out and both are IN. Colts lose and Steelers win = game over.

So basically Colts, you really need to beat the Jaguars. I really didn’t think it was possible for you to be eliminated if you lose, but after looking at all the tiebreaker rules and scenarios, you’re almost screwed if you lose. Because 1 – you lost to the Jaguars and 2 – you got eliminated while having the rushing champion on your roster, not great.

BEAT THE JAGUARS!!!

Pittsburgh Steelers

Didn’t think there was a chance, but there are a couple scenarios where the Steelers can make the playoffs. First off, they have to beat the Ravens, if they lose, that’s it, goodbye Big Ben. It’s actually much easier for the Steelers to get in than the Ravens believe it or not (see Ravens section for more details).

-If the Steelers win, and the Colts lose, the Steelers (9-7-1) are in as the 7 seed and knock out the Colts (9-8) all together. Because one of Chargers and Raiders will be 10-7, they get one spot, and the other will be Patriots or Bills. All 9-8 teams would be eliminated.

-If the Steelers win and the Colts win, its game over for the Steelers. Colts would be 10-7, Charger/Raiders 10-7, Patriots/Bills 11-6 or 10-7.

So Steelers fans, want at least one more game with Roethlisberger, you gotta win, and simultaneously root for the Jaguars with both games at 1:00 pm EST. You see the Colts blowing out the Jags, start saying your goodbyes.

Baltimore Ravens

It’s pretty difficult for the Ravens to get in, even more than the Steelers, who would’ve thought?

Anyways first step is to beat the Steelers, and then you need a lot of help, because there is only ONE, I repeat ONE scenario where you get in as the 7 seed.

Ravens win, Colts lose, Patriots win, Raiders win

There is something about the Dolphins losing that helps the Ravens. I think it’s their common game tiebreaker with the Colts or something, I don’t know I don’t have the brain power to check all that.

So yeah…Ravens…win and root for the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Chargers. If one of those teams lose, game over.

Los Angeles Chargers

Another pretty simple scenario: win and in. If you lose, there are no tiebreaking scenarios where you get in. If you lose with a 9-8 record, Ravens and Colts hold the tiebreaker over you.

There are a lot of different seeding scenarios, but you’re pretty equally in play for the 5, 6, or 7 seeds, just gonna have to wait and see.

Las Vegas Raiders

Same thing can be said for the Raiders as the Chargers: win and in. HOWEVER, it’s not over if the Raiders lose, as both teams can get in if the Colts lose and the Ravens win.

Raiders lose, Colts lose, Ravens win – Raiders beat both teams, eliminate both and claim 7th seed behind Chargers
Raiders lose, Colts lose, Steelers win – Steelers take 7th seed, with Chargers and Bills/Patriots also in wild card

If the Raiders beat the Chargers, they’re in. If the Patriots lose, Raiders are the 5 seed as they hold the common game record tiebreaker over them and the head-to-head over the Colts.

The Raiders need to win, but they don’t need to lose as badly as their opponent, as the tiebreakers are in the Raiders’ favor.

It all comes down to Sunday night.