2019 Offseason Analysis – AFC East

The first waves of free agency have come and gone and now it’s time to look at what teams have gained and lost since March 13th and where they stand as they prepare for the upcoming draft. Let’s start with the AFC East.

 Buffalo Bills

Key acquisitions: WR Cole Beasley, WR John Brown, RB Frank Gore, C Mitch Morse, TE Tyler Kroft, WR/RS Andre Roberts, OT LaAdrian Waddle, OT Ty Nsekhe, LB/S Maurice Alexander

Departures: G John Miller (Bengals), TE Logan Thomas (Lions)

Remaining free agents: T Jordan Mills

Analysis: After trading up to draft their franchise quarterback in Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills are following the formula of the 2017 Rams and 2018 Bears – draft a quarterback high, and in their second year, surround him with offensive talent. The Rams did it with the signings of Andrew Whitworth and Robert Woods, and the Bears followed suit with signing Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel. This year, the Bills signed former Cowboys slot receiver Cole Beasley and former Cardinals and Ravens speedster John Brown. The Bills desperately needed a revamped receiver core with the top two receivers being Zay Jones and Robert Foster before the free agent signings. Bringing in Frank Gore to pair with LeSean McCoy could be one of those rare future Hall of Fame backfields.

The Bills offensive line in 2018 was disastrous after losing Eric Wood to retirement, cutting Richie Incognito, and trading Cordy Glenn to the Bengals. Dion Dawkins was a solid left tackle in his second season, right guard John Miller signed with the Bengals and right tackle Jordan Mills is a free agent, with the other spots never finding consistency with Vladimir Ducasse and Wyatt Teller at left guard and Ryan Groy and Russell Bodine at center. With that analysis, it’s obvious the Bills are looking for consistency along the offensive line, and they filled that need by signing the best center on the market. Making him the highest-paid center in the league with a four-year $44.5 million contract, former Chiefs second-round pick Mitch Morse fills that void. Morse has had some injury trouble the past two years, missing nine games in 2017 with a foot injury and five games in 2018 with a concussion.

Conclusion: After a lost season in 2018, the Bills are starting strong on the rebuild. If Josh Allen can take the next step to prove he can be the franchise quarterback, the Bills will be a legitimate threat in the AFC East. The defense is solid, but needs some work. I expect them to be split on the offensive and defensive players in the draft. Buffalo has some defensive building blocks, both young and old, starting with the defensive line with Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Harrison Phillips (the heir to Kyle Williams) and Star Lotulelei. The linebackers group is one of the best in the league with 2018 first-rounder Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano who was playing at a Pro Bowl level before breaking his leg in Week 14, and Lorenzo Alexander. The secondary has a great mix of young talent and experienced veterans with Tre’Davious White, former Texans first-rounder Kevin Johnson, E.J. Gaines, and veteran safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. The Bills could surprise some people this year, with the AFC being wide open.

Miami Dolphins

Key acquisitions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TE Dwayne Allen, CB Eric Rowe

Departures: QB Ryan Tannehill (traded to Titans), DE Robert Quinn (traded to Cowboys), DE Cameron Wake (Titans), RB Frank Gore (Bills), OT Ja’Wuan James (Broncos)

Remaining free agents: Brock Osweiler, Stephone Anthony, Ziggy Hood, William Hayes, Sylvester Williams

Analysis: With the trade of Ryan Tannehill to the Titans, it signaled the beginning of a rebuild in Miami. As a team that seems to go about every season without an identity or a clear plan, this must feel refreshing for Dolphins fans. New head coach Brian Flores will be able to build the team his way with what may be a rookie quarterback this year, or tank with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center and draft someone in the top 5 next year if all goes according to plan. Dwayne Allen will have a nice role as a blocking tight end with second-year player Mike Gesicki as the main pass-catching tight end. Eric Rowe provides depth at corner behind Xavien Howard and Bobby McCain.

Losing Ja’Wuan James creates a massive void at right tackle on an already faulty offensive line. DEs Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn leave a hole on the defensive line, opening the door for young players like 2017 first-rounder Charles Harris.

Conclusion: The Dolphins need to find an identity, and that will be evident after the draft. Picking at No. 13, the Dolphins could draft their quarterback of the future with someone like Drew Lock likely available, or they’ll get lucky and one of Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins falls to them. They’ve got some building blocks on defense with veterans Reshad Jones, Kiko Alonso, and the Pro-Bowler Howard. They’ve drafted well with Minkah Fitzpatrick, Charles Harris, Raekwon McMillan, and Jerome Baker in the past two drafts.

The offense needs work. They have a decent receiving core with Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson, and Jakeem Grant, a young talented backfield with Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage, but it can be improved. The offensive line needs a lot work outside of LT Laremy Tunsil and C Daniel Kilgore (who even are Isaac Asiata, Jesse Davis, and Zach Sterup?).

The Dolphins are officially in a rebuild, and their direction will be discovered after the draft. Whether it be draft a quarterback in the first round and begin a new, or draft a highly-touted defensive player, tank with Fitzpatrick, and go after a signal-caller next year.

New England Patriots

Key acquisitions: DE Michael Bennett, DT Mike Pennel, WR Bruce Ellington, WR Maurice Harris, TE Matt LaCosse, S Terrence Brooks

Re-signed: WR Phillip Dorsett, CB Jason McCourty, DE John Simon, P Ryan Allen

Departures: DE Trey Flowers (Lions), OT Trent Brown (Raiders), DT Malcom Brown (Saints), WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson (Bears), CB Eric Rowe (Dolphins), OT LaAdrian Waddle (Bills)

Remaining free agents: K Stephen Gostkowski, WR Chris Hogan, DT Danny Shelton

Analysis: Typical Patriots free agency: let guys walk and sign massive deals elsewhere after getting a ring, and sign a bunch of no-name special teamers who will be massive contributors. The big name on the list of acquisitions is Michael Bennett. After losing Trey Flowers to $90 million in Detroit and then releasing Adrian Clayborn, it was obvious the Patriots will lack disruption on the defensive line. The top pass rushers were either tagged or being paid a ton of money, so the Patriots went out and traded for Bennett from Philly. What was already a weak spot on the roster, defensive line is now weaker than ever. Losing Malcom Brown to the Saints and with Danny Shelton still unsigned, your starting defensive line looks like Michael Bennett, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Lawrence Guy, and Mike Pennel. Pennel might be the most underrated signing of the entire offseason. After posting an 87.1 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, Pennel signed a two-year contract to plug holes, stop the run and take on double teams. Patriots will be fine without Eric Rowe, especially after re-signing Jason McCourty, and the emergence of J.C. Jackson opposite All-Pro Stephon Gilmore with Jonathan Jones and potentially Duke Dawson in the slot.

With the Raiders signing LT Trent Brown to a massive four-year, $66 million contract, the Patriots are now forced to plug in 2018 first-rounder Isaiah Wynn at left tackle, who’s coming off a torn Achilles suffered in the preseason. Of Patterson, Hogan and Dorsett, I predicted they would keep Dorsett and that’s what they did. Hogan had a visit with the Giants but nothing happened. Maurice Harris had a decent year in Washington, and made an unbelievable one-handed catch in 2017. Bruce Ellington seems to have been on the Patriots radar for awhile, and I believe he’ll have a career year in 2019.

Conclusion: After the retirement from Rob Gronkowski, tight end becomes the Patriots top priority in the draft. The top guy is Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson, but there’s no way he’ll drop to No. 32, so keep an eye on fellow Iowa Hawkeye Noah Fant, Alabama’s Irv Smith Jr., and Texas A&M’s Jace Sternberger. With this draft being called one of the best defensive drafts ever, the Patriots should be able to find a competent defensive lineman, linebacker, and some depth at safety in the first three rounds, where New England has six picks. The final hole is at kicker. There have been talks with Gostkowski about a return, but there’s nothing official, and with the kicker market dwindling, it seems likely Gost will return to New England. It wouldn’t be a Patriots offseason without more trades, and I’m anxiously waiting on a blockbuster trade in New England between now and the end of the draft, I can just sense it.

New York Jets

Key acquisitions: RB Le’Veon Bell, LB C.J. Mosley, G Kelechi Osemele (acquired from Raiders), WR Jamison Crowder, CB Brian Poole, WR Josh Bellamy, OL Tom Compton, K Chandler Catanzaro

Re-signed: DT Steve McLendon, DE Henry Anderson, CB Darryl Roberts, OLB Brandon Copeland, S Rontez Miles

Departures: CB Buster Skrine (Bears), WR/RS Andre Roberts (Bills), G James Carpenter (Falcons), DT Mike Pennel (Patriots), K Jason Myers (Seahawks), S Terrence Brooks (Patriots)

Remaining free agents: CB Morris Claiborne, WR Jermaine Kearse, QB Josh McCown, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, RB Bilal Powell

Analysis: Coming into free agency with the second-most cap space, the Jets were expected to be aggressive, and that’s exactly what their mentality was. The Jets took a similar approach to the Bills, sign a bunch of offensive weapons to surround their young QB and help his development. After sitting out 2018 in hopes for a long-term deal, Le’Veon Bell becomes the offensive focal point alongside Sam Darnold. After losing James Carpenter to the Falcons, acquiring the Pro Bowler Osemele immediately provides stability on an otherwise struggling offensive line. Having a reliable slot receiver is a must-need in today’s NFL, and Jamison Crowder provides that security blanket to get Darnold out of trouble. Their connection is something to keep an eye on as the 2019 season progresses.

The Jets made the former Raven C.J. Mosley the highest-paid inside linebacker in the NFL, and by a large margin. The 49ers gave Kwon Alexander $13.5M per year, then the Jets signed Mosley at $17M per year, a MASSIVE jump. Pairing Mosley with Avery Williamson, Jordan Jenkins, and Darron Lee (if he’s not traded) creates one of the best linebacking groups in the league. Losing Buster Skrine and with Mo Claiborne still unsigned leaves some holes at corner. Signing the former Falcon Brian Poole and bringing back Darryl Roberts helps, but the secondary has a chance to be elite next to safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye if they can draft a top cornerback in the early rounds.

Conclusion: The Jets have a chance to be competitive in 2019 with the AFC wide open, but that’s all contingent on the development of the young Sam Darnold and how well the team responds to new head coach Adam Gase. Picking at No. 3, the Jets have a chance to get one of the best defensive players in the draft, whether it be Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, or Josh Allen. They will immediately fill a need on the edge to pair with Henry Anderson or on the interior with Leonard Williams and Steve McClendon. The offensive line needs work, but consistency with Kelechi Osemele and Brian Winters at guard is a start. Adding Crowder and Josh Bellamy gives the Jets receiving group a new look alongside Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa. I’m a big fan of Chris Herndon at tight end and he has a chance to be a top tight end in this league and become a redzone target and matchup nightmare for Darnold.

The Jets are on the rise, and will be a legitimate threat not only in the East, but the entire AFC soon enough.